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Jim, you are the man. You consistently tell the truth when it comes to Alex Smith’s situation. To suggest at this point that AS is a bust is crazy. In his first year, the team surrounding him would have placed in the bottom half of the PAC-10. In his 2nd year, under Turner, he began to shine (at Seattle, at Denver). Despite lousy play calling by Hostler, he single-handedly won the Phoenix game and was key in the St Louis win. Two games later he was gone for the season.

Thanks for being a voice of truth amid a whole lot of crap this out there. I really enjoy reading your posts. Keep it up.

I believe Alex will make great strides this year.

While your quantitative argument holds some merit, I’m sure you’d agree that watching the game film is important as well. More specifically, Smith has not consistently shown the kinds of instincts that the great ones have. And, rather than Montana or Young, I look at players like Jeff Garcia as a better gauge of this. Garcia, who does not have the same physical tools as Smith or many other QBs in the league, has excelled largely because of his instincts and decision-making abilities. You saw a glimpse of that with Hill last year, where he was much more decisive and instinctive on the field. Does this mean Smith can’t get there? I’m not sure; however, I think it’s harder to develop these qualities than to train someone like Garcia (or maybe Hill), who is already instinctive and decisive, to use these instincts within a system. Lastly, as a 35+ year Bay Area fan, I don’t necessarily see Montana and Young as the benchmarks. In fact, I was thrilled to watch Garcia play and think someone at his level (with the right team around him) is plenty good enough to win playoffs and superbowls. I think Smith has 3-4 games to prove himself this year. If he’s anything less than good and or the team is anything less than 2-2, Nolan will bench him.

Actually, I think you missed this: “Does this mean Smith can’t get there? I’m not sure…” In other words, I’m not ruling anything out. And I agree that the environment has been perfectly terrible, but think of all the QBs who have been successful after floating around on practice squad after practice squad or those who join their teams after the team has been eviscerated for rebuilding. It’s certainly been an uphill battle for Smith, but that’s also the nature of the game to a certain extent. This isn’t a binary argument; it’s a matter of degrees and a question of whether he’s shown enough. And on that point, I’m not sold. Can he be a good QB? With some solid coaching and a more solid team around him, probably. (See Eli Manning for a comparison.) Can he be a great, consistently game-changing QB? In my opinion, the odds are much, much longer.

Look, I hope he can put a string of really solid games together this year, gain some confidence, and really start to grow. I would like nothing more than for Smith to emerge as a great QB. But I have yet to see that spark for more than a quarter or a half. I have yet to see him truly dominate and take over a game, even when he’s had the chances to do this. (In other words, it hasn’t been uniformly terrible over the last few year – he has had *some* chances.) And I have yet to consistently see that rapid-fire decision making that we saw from Hill last year, especially with throwing the ball. (He has done this a few times by taking off and running.)

Overall, I think we can agree that great QBs emerge in different ways. Some join terrible teams, overcome all the odds and flat out make their teams better. Others have a much more linear development path and need a lot more nurturing. The problem, however, is that the odds are stacked against the second group.

Did somebody actually say that Alex single- handedly beat Arizona last year, are you 5 years old? Alex had to comeback because his horrible 3 and out garbage put us in such a hole we had to come from behind. Our defense single handedly won that game and that was obvious to anyone that was lucid. Same against the Rams it was the defense and Frank Gores breakaway touchdown run that won that game. You guys are living in a fantasy world. In 2006 he was garbage. 16 tds and 16 ints while throwing for less than 3000 yards, look out hall of fame! Ohe yeah, that was the same year Frank Gore ran for 1,790 yds and had defenses only focusing on him (and because every defense know that Alex will NEVER beat them)and Alex still put up those garbage numbers lol. Most qbs would have thrown for 3,800 yds and 21 tds in their sleep. How could the o line be so horrible and pave the way for a 1,790 yd rusher… hmmmmm You say you don’t use excuses and you use facts, well here are some facts… Alex Smith cannot throw an accurate screen pass, Alex cannot throw to a spot before a wr makes his break, Alex cannot throw an accurate 10 yd out pattern, Alex cannot keep his eyes on the field and freezes up with any pass rush pressure, Alex cannot throw on the run and throws it into the guys shoe laces even though it’s popular for Smith lovers to say he is good at throwing on the run which is totally baseless… Oh yeah, Alex went 16 straight game throwing for under 200 yds LOL that is historically pathetic, crunch those numbers with Steve Young and Terry Bradshaw. Do you Smith excuse makers even watch niner games because I have season tickets and I’m at every game and I see guys from Antonio Bryant (who was a damn good wr), Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Darrell Jackson and Arnez Battle be open by a mile and throw their hands up in frustration because Alex misses them or holds the ball so long he lets the defense converge on the open wr so even if they do catch it they get smacked. His numbers are on par with the worst qbs in NFL history (look it up). I can’t wait for you koolaid drinkers that don’t live in reality are saying in five years when Alex is playing crappy in the CFL for the Toronto Eskimos are posting blogs making excuses because the Eskimos don’t have top notch receivers. Every opposing defenses know Alex Sucks, Steve Young and Jerry Rice know he sucks and Jerry Rice has actually said those words on Sirius, his teammates know Alex sucks and many of them have been vocal about it, the only people that don’t know he sucks is about 100 8 year olds that just starting following the niners and have lower expectations than than Raider fans… Unless you were an 8 year old the only people I personally know that like Alex are Raider fans because they hate the niners and they know the niners will never be good if that scared deer in headlights bum is under the helm.

As sad as it is, Niner4Life makes a some very good points and a compelling argument. I wouldn’t go as far as he does, but it’s really hard to overlook all Smith’s poorly thrown passes, bad decisions, deer-in-the-headlights plays, etc. I’m hoping something miraculous happens and proves us all wrong….