Fanboy Sports Blog: 49ers

I recently caught ESPN’s reposting of Mel Kiper’s writeup on Peyton Manning prior to the 1998 draft, in comparison to the bust that was Ryan Leaf.  This prompted me to go back to Mel’s scouting report on Alex Smith in 2005.  Mel was right on when it came to Manning, as he had been right on about so many players.  Did Mel overthink Smith’s abilities?  Or, considering how rough a road Smith has had, could Mel have forseen this doom?

Try as I might, I couldn’t find it.  If anyone out there can, could you point me in the right direction?  What I did find was all sorts of other scouting reports on him.  I want to take a look at the two major issues about Smith coming out, and see where they have gone over his three-year career.

Conversion to a Pro System
This was the chief concern about Alex Smith, where at Utah he played the Urban Meyer spread offense, a system built around multiple options, quick reads, and a mobile quarterback.  People wondered how he would do going from shotgun only to taking snaps under center.

What we saw his first season was a player with flawed fundamentals, obviously.  He came into a West Coast offense run by Mike McCarthy, from shotgun 1-back or empty sets to two-back pro sets and I-formations.  Tim Rattay had started the first several games before Smith took over.  He struggled to be productive at all, throwing one touchdown the entire season, and eleven interceptions.

When Norv Turner came on board, we saw the single greatest turnaround in Quarterback efficiency as Smith went from 40.8 to 74.8!  Credit first must be given to Turner for his ability to get more out of Smith.  His history with Troy Aikman was a testament to his coaching skill.  But credit also must be given to Alex Smith.  Coming off a terrible rookie campaign, especially for the #1 overall draft pick, he had the confidence and intelligence to learn Norv Turner’s system, he displayed much-improved fundamentals and physical ability.

When Norv Turner left the team, this had a severe psychological impact on the entire team.  Norv was a super-bowl winning, proven coordinator.  Surely the comparison of Jim Hostler’s resume to Turner’s left much to be desired.  The players also probably felt a little betrayed by the coach that made them into the surprise of 2006.  This was now the third coordinator Smith had played under, and all the momentum that was gained under Turner was lost like air from a balloon when he left.

Having played in college in a non-pro system, being forced to learn new fundamentals from the beginning, being forced to absorb new playbooks and coaching styles with each of his pro seasons, Smith has held up okay for his part.  Three games is hardly enough to see what he could have done in 2007.

Remember kids, when your arm is falling off at the shoulder, it’s kind of hard to do anything well.

Smith a “Two to Three Year Project”
This seemed to be a prevailing sentiment, centered around this conversion to the pro system.  Well, how has that worked out so far?  To avoid rehashing the previous paragraph, I will say that Aaron Rodgers was favored to be Nolan’s pick up until late March, when both players had their “Pro Day” at their respective schools.  Rodgers was thought to be the more immediate contributor.

I wonder whether passing on Rodgers and selecting Smith was the impetus for Mike McCarthy’s departure at the end of the year to take the head coaching position at Green Bay.  You’ve got to think that McCarthy knew Favre’s career would be over soon, and he had a great prospect sitting behind a legend.  Kind of convenient.  But I digress.

Had the 49ers taken Aaron Rodgers instead of Smith, it is likely that Smith would have dropped in his value, and fallen ostensibly to Green Bay, who was interested in a quarterback.  How would Aaron Rodgers have fared playing behind Tim Rattay, throwing the ball to a bunch of scrubs and Arnaz Battle in his rookie season?  Better?  Who can say?  How would Alex Smith have developed sitting behind a living legend?  It is not a stretch to think that he would have been much better prepared at this point in his career.

This “two to three year project” has been derailed with each of the young Smith’s three seasons.  Mike Nolan was a rookie Head Coach, with a lot of things entrusted to him.  It’s hard to think that McCarthy and Turner were going to stake their reputations on working under him.  Perhaps had the Yorks hired a former head coach, stability would have been better.

Smith’s career so far is full of false starts.  Three steps forward, two steps back.  Learn a system, struggle.  Learn a new system, get demonstrably better.  Get a third system, start off slow, get traumatically injured.  How could anyone expect any draft prospect to handle this well?  How could anyone have been surprised by the flap of frustrations boiling over between Smith and Nolan toward the end of 2007?

Bottom Line
I believe that Smith is more resilient than people are giving him credit for.  I think that he is intelligent enough to go from Mike McCarthy’s system to a completely different one under Norv Turner and become a much better quarterback–but to jump up thirty points in quarterback rating?  It’s unheard of!

Alex Smith did it, though.

Now one of the brightest offensive minds has come to town.  Now the great veteran Isaac Bruce, who is still a 75-catch guy, and an upward-rising young talent in Bryant Johnson have come in as erstwhile starters.  Our Wide Reciever corps is suddenly twice as good as it was last season, and Mike Martz is the man who works miracles.  A lot of people think Smith can’t ressurect his career.  That he’s not smart enough to absorb Mike Martz’ system.  That he’s lost the confidence of all his teammates.  That he’s lost all confidence in himself.

Alex Smith can do it, though.  And I think Mike Martz knows it.  And before Martz is done with him, Alex Smith will know it, too.