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It’s been a long time since I’ve posted an entry here, and likely many of you expected the third in the Going Forward installment by sometime in January.

I wanted to wait until the 49ers Offensive personnel got closer to sorting itself out before I decided my opinion.  I waited until Mike Martz was hired.  I waited through Free Agency.  I waited until the Offseason Conditioning Program began to see who would show up for work.  Now I have an idea as to how things are going to shake out.

Clearly, Mike Martz is going to be the difference maker this season.  The leaps and bounds of progress that Norv Turner made with Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Arnaz Battle, and even the offensive line, was cut short under Jim Hostler.  He was just a very bad coach, make no bones about it.  However, Mike Martz is much more of a catalyst for change than even Norv Turner is.  Norv can take a bad situation and make it better.  Mike Martz can take garbage and make it sing opera.

The simple fact is that everything Mike Martz touches turns to gold.  Trent Green, Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, and even John Kitna are all testaments to that fact.  Even Marshall Faulk, the guy people say Martz forgot how to use, was twice a league MVP because of him.  Martz has been to two Super Bowls and achieved victory in one of them.  Losing a close one to Tom Brady is no sob story.

The Marshall Faulk tale brings up the conundrum that all critics like to preach, that Martz does not know how to run the football.  Look at the facts:  Mike Martz has been the Offensive playcaller for how many teams?  Two.  He made a name for himself in St. Louis with speedy guys like Torry Holt and Az-Zahir Hakim, but he also had Isaac Bruce (now a Niner) and Ricky Proehl as his possession receivers.  Everyone says Martz’ system needs small, fast recievers to work.  In Detroit, he had big ol’ bookend receivers.

When Martz came in, Faulk achieved the Roger Craig-like 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving.  Faulk was already in his sixth year in the league, and it wasn’t until year nine that his numbers began to drop off.  Martz could see his durability sloping off, so it’s no small wonder that Faulk appeared to be used less and less.  People say Martz doesn’t know how to run the ball, and sometimes his stubbornness comes out in public, especially when he says he should have thrown the ball more against the Patriots. 

The reason teams want to run the ball is twofold: first, to control the clock and keep the ball out of the other teams’ hands.  The second reason is to wear down opposing defenses by grinding it out.  Marshall Faulk’s own words on the subject make the most sense.  He admitted that Frank Gore is a much better inside runner than he ever was.  Faulk was better suited to the cutback trap plays that moved the back to the outside edges.  This does not serve to wear down defenses, as the defensive linemen give pursuit for as much as three seconds before the play moves beyond them.  There is no chance to wear them down.

Conversely with a tank like Frank Gore, which Martz never had, and our beefy offensive linemen, which Martz never had, we can push the ball inside.  The Defensive Linemen will more often be forced to use their upper body for positioning and tackling, and linebackers will be filling gaps inside, getting pounded by linemen and Gore himself.  This is the key to a second half running game.

Martz is not a man who is a slave to his own system.  He used the weapons he had in St. Louis, and he used the weapons he had in Detroit.  He never came in and forced the team to pick the players he wanted to “fit his system.”  Mike Martz is a master of football, period.  He knows how to use players to fit their skill sets.  He never had a bruising back.   He never had a mobile quarterback.  He never had a freakishly talented, though still a little raw, mold-breaking tight end.  His offensive line in St. Louis was good, while the one in Detroit was not.  He had garbage running backs while we have an All-Pro. 

By the way, Martz is the guy that drafted Stephen Jackson.  Okay, moving on.

Speaking of mobile quarterbacks, this leads me to another gripe the critics will espouse.  They tell me to look at the sack nubmers, that Martz “gets quarterbacks killed.”  However, we need to look at sack numbers for his quarterbacks without his “system.”  Kurt Warner was a notorious sack magnet and fumbler in New York, and plays only slightly better in Arizona since they actually have receivers who can catch the ball.  Marc Bulger got utterly destroyed last year, and not just because Orlando Pace was out.  Trent Green has been forced to retire because of all the blows to the head, and John Kitna has zero escapability.

Essentially this means that Alex Smith, who has shown us his escapability in games all through 2006, and the three games in which he was not injured in 2007, gives Martz a tool he has never had: the threat of the quarterback to run.  Martz can now actually use a rollout pass play, whereas no defense would ever be fooled by a Kurt Warner bootleg.  Martz can now actually use a rolling pocket screen play.  Big whoop you say, but for a guy like Martz this is like a new chemistry set at Christmas, and his dad just told him to make something. 

Mike Martz is the most important factor to the 49ers’ success this season.  After that, Bryant Johnson is a legitimate threat to be the Primary receiver if he displays a strong work ethic .  Arnaz Battle is still good enough to be a consistent player, he just had a subpar performance last season.  Isaac Bruce provides leadership and a great possession reciever when on the field.  What he provides to his fellow players is a model of how to work with Coach Martz, especially to a group that was woeful last season.

In other news of woeful groups, J.T. O’Sullivan is not a guy that is brought in to compete as the starter, let’s just get that out in the open.  Martz may say so, but he doesn’t want to piss off O’Sullivan’s agent.  Mike Nolan is under no such constraints, and made that clear on NFL Network.  What O’Sullivan provides is another model of how to work with Mike Martz.  If Smith or Hill become uncomfortable, all they need to do is look at the younger O’Sullivan and say, “if he can do it, we can do it.”

Let’s be honest.  Shaun Hill has been in the leage going on seven years.  The 49ers brought him in almost as an afterthought.  You can go back to the post “Much Ado About Shaun Hill” to find out why his end of the year performance last season was unimpressive.  The simple fact is, if you’re an afterthought in your sixth season in the NFL, you are not starter or potential starter material.  Alex Smith is about to begin only his third season of real playing time.  He only has 30 starts under his belt under three different coordinators.  His career is far from decided.

Mike Martz is indeed the best thing Mike Nolan could have given Smith.  Oh yeah, and some receivers to boot.  We’ve seen what Smith could do with Antonio Bryant.  Now put Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson into the mix, and a healthy Vernon Davis who had a fine season for a tight end last year.  Things are looking way up for Alex Smith.  Martz and Smith are going to do outstanding things, in my opinion.

Here’s the bottom line:  Whether Smith, Hill, or O’Sullivan, the choice of starter will be the right choice, and they will put up great numbers.  No matter how you slice it, with Mike Martz, this team will be in the playoffs.  Mark it.