Fanboy Sports Blog: 49ers

Well it’s been a while, hasn’t it? I’ve sat out this offseason waiting for, as Jack Sparrow once said, the opportune moment. This is that moment. As we begin the runup to Training Camp, staring on July 24th, I ran into a few questions that I find intriguing enough to answer on this blog.

The first is a question regarding the Quarterback issue. Over on Matt Maiocco’s blog at the Santa Rosa Press Democrat, a fan called San Jose 49er said the following in the comments:

“Damon Bruce said ‘If Alex Smith came back to be a decent quarterback it would be the biggest comeback in the history of the NFL.’   Name one quarterback that has started a career like this and ended up even being decent? Thats what I thought… none.”

Of course I took this opportunity to look into the issue and decide if there indeed had been any quarterback that fits this equation. One fan posited Terry Bradshaw as his answer, with the challenge for San Jose 49er to “do some research.” Not to worry, I did it for him. I went straight to our very own quarterback history.

Steve Young fits this bill. In 1986 for Tampa Bay he played in 11 games, threw for 2k yards, 8 TD, 13 INT, 47 sacks. He did better the next year, in 8 games he threw for 10 TD and 0 INT, but only 570 yards. In 1988 in 11 games for the 49ers, 680 yds 3 TD, 3 INT, 13 sacks. Steve Young’s future in the league was questioned right up to the point he was named the starter. If you forget that, you’re either too young to remember or too blind to notice.

So I calculated Young’s first three years vs. Smith’s first three years:

G Att Comp Pct Yds Avg TD INT SCK RATING
27 570 304 53% 3787 6.6 21 21 71 71.14
32 800 435 54.4% 4679 5.8 19 31 81 63.5

Then I even broke it down by average per game over those three years, because that’s the kind of dedication I bring:

Att Comp Pct Yds Avg TD INT SCK RATING
21 11 52% 140 6.6 .7 .7 2.6 70.73
25 13 52% 146 5.8 .6 .9 2.5 62.75

Smith and Young are comparable on accuracy around 53%, comparable in yards, and neither very impressive with their rating. Young turned out pretty darn good later on.

What about Terry Bradshaw? Well he wasn’t even a “great” quarterback. He’s the Trent Dilfer of his day. In fact, I compared him to Trent Dilfer for you, because I bring it, fo rillz, yo.

Att Comp Pct Yds Avg TD INT SCK RTG
2025 3901 51.9 27,989 7.2 212 210 307 70.9
1759 3172 55.5 20,518 6.5 113 129 263 70.2

Any guess as to which numbers are for the Hall-of-Famer and which are for the career scrub? The only time Bradshaw threw over 60% in a season was when he had 8 pass attempts in 1983, his final year. For the record, the top line is Bradshaw, and Dilfer was a more accurate passer! This just goes to show how a great supporting cast can help you. Imagine if Alex Smith had John Stallworth and Lynn Swann to throw to!

Look at John Elway. He was under 60%, 1 to 1 TD to INT ratio (or worse) all the way through 1991. Yeah he had a ton of yards, but his career rating is 79.9.

Now, let me be frank here: The Quarterback Rating system is an imperfect system. It was designed to place a greater weight on completion percentage and Touchdown to Interception ratio. This goes to the strength of the West Coast Offense. However, a guy like Dan Marino has an 86.4 rating, which will not take into account his massive number of yards and touchdowns. A high rating is great to have, but ultimately means nothing. In the end Bradshaw has four rings, and Marino has none.

So what’s the point? Am I implying that Alex Smith is every bit as good as Steve Young, Dan Marino, and John Elway? Certainly not. Am I saying Smith will win Super Bowls while being as bad as Terry Bradshaw or Trent Dilfer? I hope not. The point is that after three seasons his fate is hardly decided at this juncture, and I maintain that it’s not his fault. Yes, that’s right, it’s time for “excuses” as some say, or “facts” as I like to call them.

The last five years in San Francisco may in fact be the worst ever environment for players or coaches in the history of sports. Terry Donahue managed to almost singlehandedly destroy the salary cap status of the franchise. He also managed to rob us of a good coach in Steve Mariucci. Dennis Erickson stepped into a situation of ineptitude and micromanagement, and never really had a chance to succeed.

Enter Mike Nolan, a rookie head coach. Enter Alex Smith, a rookie quarterback. Both of these men stepped into a situation where ownership wanted to change things around. Both of these men stepped into the historically hallowed positions “49ers Head Coach” and “49ers Quarterback,” with expectations to do just that. However, it is an ownership that so far has been marked by nearly as much ineptitude as Terry Donahue displayed, but at least they’re trying to learn.

All the quarterbacks mentioned above stepped into the pros after playing the same style of football in college. This factor cannot be overlooked. All the Hall of Fame quarterbacks mentioned above played for Hall of Fame coaches at the outset. They all had consistency in their coaching staff and playing style. Alex Smith has had none of that.

From day one Nolan and Smith were expected to be as good as Walsh and Montana. Like it or not, say it or not, no city or fan base comes pre-installed with the same level of expectations as San Francisco. Fans of this team have come to expect greatness, and so they demand greatness. From day one McCarthy used this as a vehicle to go coach Brett Favre, Turner used it as a vehicle away from the Raiders, Hostler… got in the vehicle and didn’t know how to drive it.

Smith has always had the physical tools to be a great quarterback, he’s just never had the coach who could draw out the good and refine away the bad.  He has already done that 49er Quarterback thing of cementing himself in NFL history, when he made the single greatest improvement in quarterback rating jumping up from 40 in year one to 74 in year two.  The quarterbacks above had consistency in their coaching staff, quality receivers to throw to, and an offensive line that knew how to protect.

This is the first season he will have all three of those pieces. Now watch what he does with them.

1st Rd #29 - Kentwan Balmer, DL North Carolina
I was shocked when I saw that the 49ers drafted him, not because I thought that they wouldn’t, but because no one else did first!  I wasn’t surprised that they picked him up, however, if you recall what I said in my post on the 49ers’ draft needs: “they really don’t need a fast Defensive End in this scheme. The kind of player they’d benefit most from here is Kentwan Balmer. Defensive line is probably not a priority going in for Scot McCloughan, but if a big beefy tackle is there, I could easily see them springing for him. In that scenario, it makes putting Sopoaga in Young’s spot a much more permanent move.”

He was easily in the top five of defensive linemen in the entire draft, and when he fell to the 49ers he was absolutely the best player on the board.  None of the positions we would have said were need picks had any standout players available.  There is a reason no one picked a wide receiver in the first round.  None of the Outside pass-rushers were game changers in college.  There were no All-American stalwarts out there like Patrick Willis.  Kentwan Balmer is big, strong, quick, versatile, has a great attitude, has the love for the Red and Gold, and immediately comes in as a serious contender to start at the Nose Tackle or End.

2nd Rd #39 - Chilo Rachal, OG Southern California
I’ll admit I knew nothing about Chilo Rachal when I saw his name, but the fact that he’s a Trojan made me happy.  He’s a smash mouth guard from a program that gave up few sacks, if any.  He’s smart, well-spoken, and is an absolute bruiser on the field.  For a team that thrives on locker room leadership from the biggest men in there, this is a great pick.  Had Sam Baker not gone so early, I think maybe he could have been the pick here.

3rd Rd #75 - Reggie Smith, CB Oklahoma
Reggie Smith is quite nearly a clone of Nate Clements.  He has great size for a corner, with the strength to jam receivers at the line.  One thing I noticed watching clips of him, and the thing that reminded me of Clements, is his open-field tackling ability.  He is very instinctive about his body position when he goes in to make the hit.  If Walt Harris needs spelling, I think Smith may be more capable on the outside than even Shawntae Spencer.  Regardless, he will raise the level of competition in the defensive backfield, and I project him as a starter at the nickel spot eventually in 2008.  This guy is also extremely well-spoken and sounds like a pro.

4th Rd #107 - Cody Wallace, C Texas A&M
I know virtually nothing about Cody Wallace.  I only know what the scouting reports say, and they are very positive.  I get the sense he is very intelligent–he has to be as a center–and that he has good technique.  I also called this a little in my draft needs post, when I said that I’d like to see the 49ers get a center because we still don’t really know how much of the problem in the middle of the line was due to Heitmann’s leg injury.  It could have been all on Smiley, but I doubt it.  I thought taking a center was a good insurance policy.

6th Rd #174 - Josh Morgan, WR Virginia Tech
I won’t bother going into the off-the-field “issues.”  I know that he’s talented and played on a team with a solid passing game.  He is a decent player who has a chance to make the team if he works hard.  He’s rather softspoken, and resembles Isaac Bruce in his demeanor.  If he follows in the footsteps of the sure-fire hall of famer he ought to do well.  The Niners felt like they could take a flier in this round, based on previous experience with first-day wide receiver selections.

7th Rd #214 - Larry Grant, OLB Ohio State
Grant had experience on a great college program, in a conference known for producing hard-nosed defensive players.  People project him as a third-string linebacker and special-teams guy, and Special Teams Coordinator Al Everest liked the kid so much, he kept trying to sell Nolan on the pick after they made it!

Truth be told, though, the scouting report on Grant praises his leverage, his effort, and his timing and quickness on blitzes.  He could stand to bulk up a little and work on his technique, but I believe he could challenge for a lot of time rushing the passer in certain situations.  He grew up in the Sacramento area as a 49ers fan.  I love it when the team drafts guys with a love for the red and gold, because it means they’re more likely to care about team success, and be more inclined to stay.  This bodes well for long-term success of this team.

Overall Impression
I like the draft considering the quality of players in it.  I don’t really think they could have done anything much better.  There really was no consensus pass-rushing stud in this draft, and I think the next couple of seasons will bear that out.  I believe Parys Haralson is going to be the starter opposite Manny Lawson, and everything we hear suggests the team is very happy with his improvement.  We’ll see how that plays out.

Offensively, Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson both are 1,000 yard-caliber players.  With Arnaz Battle, Ashley Lelie, and an emerging Jason Hill, they didn’t need to draft a wide receiver, especially since there were no absolute burners out there.  Bruce had nearly 1,000 yards last season in a horrible year for the team.  He is still quick and able to get open.  Bryant Johnson was a very capable third option behind Boldin and Fitzgerald, and I believe we’re going to see a breakout for him here.

The NFL schedule is out, and I have compiled my optimistic predictions for the upcoming season.  I think it’s reasonable for an optimist.  Next installment will be the Pessimistic Predictions.  For now, let’s dream, shall we?

Week One - Arizona Cardinals 4:15 p.m.  Win
With the newly revamped and confident offense, the Niners take charge at home right out of the gate.  The reporting runs along the line of “well they did this against Arizona last season, too.”

Week Two - at Seattle Seahawks 4:05 p.m.  Win
The Seattle Seahawks’ aging defense cannot counter Mike Martz’ gameplanning.  The Seattle secondary struggles to cover Bruce, Johnson, and Davis, and can’t stop Frank Gore.

Week Three - Detroit Lions 4:05 p.m.  Win
The Lions were bad before Mike Martz got there, and they’re worse now that he’s gone.  Nolan starts off with a three-game win streak, and at home, Alex Smith has the biggest game of his career.

Week Four - at New Orleans Saints 1 p.m.  Loss
I’m going to assume the streak of losses against the Saints continues, mostly because I don’t think the team is ready to mount a four-game streak.  I don’t think it will be a blowout, and if the pass rush is improved significantly, that would be the thing that changes the matchup.

Week Five - New England Patriots 4:15 p.m.  Loss
The only way the Niners win this game is if Tom Brady gets hurt, or if they lose their left tackle AND the pass rush is better.  The whole “curse of the Super Bowl participant not making the playoffs” thing could come into play.  Local boy comes home and makes good.

Week Six - Philadelphia Eagles 4:15 p.m.  Win
The team bounces back from two straight losses to beat this fading NFC stalwart.  They still don’t have good enough receivers to beat the 49ers’ secondary, and our linebackers keep Bryant Westbrook out of the superhuman level.  The run game is prominent in this one.

Week Seven - at New York Giants 1 p.m.  Loss
Just because these Giants won the Super Bowl doesn’t mean they are going to be amazing.  If the Super Bowl Participant curse affects anyone, it’s more likely to be the Giants this season.  Going with a loss just because that’s my gut feeling.

Week Eight - Seattle Seahawks 4:15 p.m.  Win
Niners get revenge for last season’s embarrasing sweep.

9 Nov. 2 Bye  
10 Nov. 10 (Mon.) at Arizona Cardinals 8:30 p.m.  Win
Monday Night.  The star performers in this game are Frank Gore, Alex Smith and Vernon Davis.  The young core of the Mike Nolan Era finally asserts themselves.  Leinart and Smith have a classic Monday Night QB duel.

Week Eleven - St. Louis Rams 4:05 p.m.  Win
Niners take the division by the throat in this one.

Week Twelve - at Dallas Cowboys 1 p.m.  Loss
Cowboys are just too strong a team, and there’s not a whole lot more you can say about that.

Week Thirteen - at Buffalo Bills 1 p.m.  Loss
Late November, cold weather, I don’t really know how the team will react.  They haven’t had a game like this in a while, except for last season’s road game in Cleveland.  Alex Smith shouldn’t be bothered since he played in the cold at Utah, and Vernon Davis played in the Eastern Seaboard wind at Maryland.  But overall I think the weather impacts the team in general.

Week Fourteen - New York Jets 4:05 p.m.  Win
I just don’t think the Jets improve enough to match the 49ers’ improvements.  Likely to see a rookie Quarterback in this contest.

Week Fifteen - at Miami Dolphins 1 p.m.  Win
See above.

Week Sixteen - at St. Louis Rams 1 p.m.  Loss
One team keeps the 49ers from sweeping the division, and that is the resurgent Rams with Jake Long at the Left Tackle position.  Bulger is still deadly accurate, and Stephen Jackson resumes his steamrolling ways.

Week Seventeen - Washington Redskins 4:15 p.m.  Win
NBC executes the option to broadcast this final game between two teams looking to make the playoffs.  It could come down to a Wildcard chance for both teams, or else the Niners are looking to lock up the Division title.  I think this is a great Prime-Time finish.

End of Regular Season
Niners finish 10-6 and go to the playoffs as Division Champs.  Team MVP is Frank Gore, going over 2,000 total yards from scrimmage.  How do they fare in the playoffs?  Who knows?

Chad Johnson recently came out and demanded he be traded from the Bengals, and immediate speculation ensued among 49er fans, who long for the days of top-flight recievers in San Francisco.  Could the 49ers acquire Johnson?  What could the 49ers have that the Bengals would want?

Chad the Distraction
I am as close to Cincinnati as I am to Indianapolis, and I see a lot of Chad Johnson.  He is nowhere close to the kind of locker room problems of, say, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, or even Antonio Bryant.  What Chad is reacting to is the complacency of the Bengals ownership group.  For years their only concern has been selling tickets, not buliding a consistent winner.  Where 49er fans are accustomed to Hall of Famers and Super Bowls, Cincinnati fans are accustomed to losing.  The owners know they are going to sell tickets whether the team wins or loses.

Chad Johnson has done nothing but perform consistently on the field.  He is a fabulous possession reciever, as his primary contribution is catches and yards.  The TD celebrations are the only thing that really puts him in the public eye, but it’s entertainment.  He doesn’t score touchdowns all that often.  The media ALWAYS overhypes players like this, to make you believe all they do is whine.  Chad merely recognizes that win or lose, Marvin Lewis will have his job for as long as he wants it, and Chad will continue to labor without a real shot at a Super Bowl.

If I had to qualify him as a distraction, I would say he’s more like Deion Sanders.  Yes, he is flamboyant for the sake of entertainment, but when he’s on the field he is nothing less than a Pro Bowler, and he gets along with fellow players.  Don’t talk to me about this “rift” between him and Carson Palmer.  Carson is asserting himself as the leader of this team, but also making assumptions.  Johnson didn’t want anyone putting words in his mouth.  They’ve been playing together for years now with nothing to show for it, and Chad wants something to play for.

What Would the 49ers Trade?
First up is pick #29 in this year’s draft.  This is an absolute no-brainer.  There are no players in this year’s class that are good enough that we can’t pass them up.  There are solid Outside Linebackers valued in Round Two (Avril).  There are solid Offensive Linemen valued in Round Three (McGlynn).

But Cincinnati won’t part for just #29.  Chad is worth more than that.  Who would we trade to them?  I imagine that they covet Defensive Line depth, and everyone knows they absolutely need a Defensive Linemen in this draft.  We happen to have several young, capable players in that area.  I could see us unloading #29 and perhaps Melvin Oliver or Joe Cohen.

Would they take a trade for that?  Sure.  They have #9, they’d have #29, and they’d have a good young DT.  That’s three first-day values right there.

What About the Financials for the 49ers?
I’ll relay a conversation I had with my good friend and Cincinnati Bengals fan, Kevin Willis.  He’s also my cohost on The Fanboy Sportscast, still on hiatus.

Me: Well admittedly I’d love to see Chad in a 49er uniform.  However, we’ve only got 18 mil of cap space, and if we brought Chad in we’d have to let someone else go.  I know Scot McCloughan and the Yorks are not about to take a down-the-road cap hit for the guy.  However, it is possible (however unlikely) that Chad would agree to a less than market value contract for a chance to play with Martz and have a couple years of great numbers to boost said value.
Kevin: He makes about six million. You’d be giving up the #1 pick, so that leaves you $12 million to sign picks 2-7.  Should be plenty.
Me: But I’m considering the typical contract ballooning in the latter years.
Kevin: It doesn’t balloon.  We eat the signing bonus.  It is a good deal.
Me: How does it not balloon?  Cincinnati eats the signing bonus?
Kevin: The team that paid the signing bonus eats it.  It goes against our cap.  You just pay his salary.  You can cut him whenever you want without fear of the signing bonus accelerating against your cap.  It accelerates a little, but nothing major.  It stays in the $6 mil range.
Me: What’s the remaining term of his contract?
Kevin: Four years I think.  Don’t quote me.
Me: I just did.

So here’s the skinny:  Chad’s got four years left on his contract ( I looked it up, he was right).  This keeps him in San Francisco.  His signing bonus counts against Cincinnati’s cap, and we can cut him whenever we want.  He comes in, we tell him to cheer up and behave, and have Mike Martz use him to his full potential.  I think this would be an outstanding move for us, and we can still address our O-Line and Pass Rusher needs in the draft.

I am sick and tired of hearing crap about Manny Lawson.  In fact, despite my continued confidence in Alex Smith, criticism of Manny Lawson pushes me past the brink of annoying, and into pissed off world.

Anyone who knows me understands that I have no love for Pro Football Weekly, the website.  The publication might be nice, but they’re just another throw-out-a-prediction-and-hope-it-sticks kind of rag.  This is the place that continues to recycle old opinion on players and put it out in its “Whispers” column as though it is news.  Just in case you doubt the fact that Vernon Davis has to learn Mike Martz’ offense, just ask them.  Wow.  Big revelations.  Oh right, EVERYONE has to learn Mike Martz’ offense.

If you’ve read my commentary on Alex Smith, you know I think he did not have a good chance to build on his improvements in 2006.  Now if I think that way about Alex Smith, then you know Manny Lawson does not deserve to be prematurely judged. Manny has played in 18 games in two seasons, having started 14.  Fourteen starts!  That’s less than a full season of a solid workload.  So I read Pro Football Weekly’s latest “Whispers” column, and I read this:

“Word is there is a concern among some close to the Niners that the team might be putting too much stock in former first-round pick Manny Lawson, who missed most of his second season with a knee injury, to the detriment of other players on the roster. Lawson has plenty of raw talent, but his development as a pass rusher has been disappointing.”

Now excuse me for being… I don’t know… REASONABLE, but is 57 tackles in a rookie campaign disappointing?  He finished eighth on the team in 2006, and the distance between that and 3rd was only five tackles.  How often does a late first-round defensive player make a huge contribution in his rookie season?  About as often as a Patrick Willis comes along.

So Manny starts two games last season and goes down with a torn ACL, having literally no chance to build on last season.  In 2006 he came in rail thin, raw and inexperienced.  In 2007 he came in bigger, faster, and smarter.  Lest you deny the impact he had on that defense, Matt Leinart found himself just as pressured as Alex Smith did in that first game, while Marc Bulger found himself on the ground–a lot–and had broken ribs, to boot!  Now Manny didn’t get any sacks, but he was key in adding that pressure.  Also, remember how Heath Miller of the Steelers killed the 49ers in week three, because Hannibal Navies couldn’t keep up with him?

Now I understand all the journalistic tricks of rhetoric.  First in the blurb comes this extremely passive attempt at making you think they have a source.  If they had said “Some coaches,” “Some players,” or “Team Management,” they might have a credible opinion in there.  Who is it spreading this “word,” how strong is this “concern,” who are these “some close,” and how many are there, and what is this “might” business?  Either they are or they aren’t!  So there’s four instances of passive language, indicating to me this blurb has zero legs to stand on.

Then comes the most brilliant, yet easy to spot, hook-line-and-sinker of the rhetorical fisherman.  Put up something that fools the reader into thinking it’s mildly credible, then tag it on the end with your own opinion, fooling the reader into giving you further credibility.  It’s amateurish, high-school paper stuff.  These people get hits by posting things that generate controversy.  It’s not news, it’s rumor-mongering, and it sickens me.  But back to the point.

They write, “Lawson has plenty of raw talent,” note the statement of fact.  Well big deal.  That’s like saying Peyton Manning has plenty of raw talent.  More to the point, it’s like saying Mike Vick has plenty of raw talent.  So they pull you in with a statement of fact, then give you this: “But his development as a pass rusher has been disappointing.”  Actually, that would be “tearing his ACL was disappointing,” but making another statement of fact wouldn’t suit their purpose.  Stating a weak opinion does.

How can any legitimate football publication, which purports to have a reputation for journalistic integrity and highly-coveted football analysis, possibly expect a guy who has played in only 18 NFL games to be a stud?  Javon Kearse didn’t break out until his second season.  Those players who stand out as the greatest sack-masters of the game (or are hyped as such) are defensive linemen:  Michael Strahan, Reggie White,  Charles Haley, Dwight Freeney, Javon Kearse, just to name a few, and Kearse and Freeney have never tallied more than 41 tackles in a season.

The fact is that Manny Lawson has barely played more than a rookie season in the NFL, and Pro Football Weekly stands to tell 49er fans that there is doubt about one of the more beloved, missed, and highly anticipated players.

And just in case you were wondering, they think Vernon Davis still has something to prove.

(Editor’s Note: The last line was a trick of rhetoric called “sarcasm,” intended to drive home the point that Pro Football Weekly rarely reports news of any kind.)

(Editor’s Note #2: The first Editor’s Note was also sarcasm)

Okay, so, I’m not usually the one to jump in where everyone else has already gone, but I thought what the heck, my opinions are usually far afield from everyone else.  Very few mocks had us taking Patrick Willis last year, and very few mocks have me duplicating their picks.  On two of these, I find myself seeing another guy down the list and thinking, “well he’s much better than this guy.”

I’ve already pointed out what I think we need, and the priority.  Now I’ll look at who I think they’ll take in the first four rounds.  Six and Seven don’t really matter much as they are just depth plugs.  I see maybe a corner in there, and possibly a running back.

I really don’t like Groves of Auburn.  I think he is way too small for the kind of guy we need, and certainly not worth 1st round money.  I don’t see them taking Dan Connor, because he’s no Patrick Willis, and we’ve already got Dontarrious Thomas to play next to him.  We need an OLB if anything. 

Round 1, #29: Sam Baker OT USC 6′5″ 305
Looking at who will likely be available, I actually think Sam Baker of USC warrants a pick at 29.  I believe offensive tackle has the best value at this spot, as far as what we’ll end up paying the player.  He very strong and commits to his blocks.  He’s very good at turning the initial defender while keeping his body low, so that when he gets to the second-level guy, his motor and center of gravity are virtually unchanged.

Round 2, #39: Cliff Avril OLB Purdue, 6′3″ 253
With the widouts we have, and Martz’ ability to make them good, I think a WR pick is wasted here.  Cliff Avril here would be a surprise to some, but in the ranks of DE/OLB that are available, not too shabby.  He led the team with 6.5 sacks and 15 tackles for a total loss of 56 yards.  He’s got solid and compact size for an OLB, and he’s very athletic with a 37-1/2″ vertical.  From NFL Draft Scout.com: “Avril played linebacker earlier in his career and displayed those attributes during drills, showing a bit more power driving out of his plants. His 6.90-second three-cone drill, which tests agility necessary to play in space, was the best for linemen and also in the top six for linebackers.”

This agility and “power driving out of his plants” is a common theme lately with people discussing why Manny Lawson doesn’t get good presure on the QB.  I think his solid, compact frame coupled with his agility gives him a unique advantage coming around the weak side.

Round 3, #75: Mike McGlynn OG/OT Pitt, 6′4″ 311
Here is another undervalued lineman, which I see as fitting a real need we have: A guy who can play anywhere, including Center.  I think we really need to consider a replacement for Eric Heitmann in case that leg injury was a major factor in the sieve that was the middle of our line last season.   Here’s another Senior Bowl alumn that I can’t see the Niners passing up.

I’ll let Rob Rang speak for me again:  “Conversations I’ve had with offensive line coaches at the Senior Bowl just confirmed what I already suspected about the former Pitt star — he is the most versatile offensive lineman to enter the draft in years. A veteran of 47 games for the Panthers, McGlynn saw most of his time at right guard, but at 6-4, 311 pounds he has the size and lateral quickness to move outside to tackle and the deep-snapping skills to be groomed as a center.”

Round 4: Harry Douglas WR Louisville, 5′11″ 176
This Senior Bowl South-Teamer is one of those kind of guys Nolan and McCloughan praise for doing better in pads than in shorts.  I’ve watched Harry Douglas for four years at Louisville, and while 2007 saw his number slope off due to an ankle injury, 2006 was one of his best seasons, where he was a favorite target of Brian Brohm.  What Douglas brings to the table is an outstanding work ethic and great hands. 

Route running may be a bit suspect, but Martz and Sullivan can fix that with Douglas’ willingness to learn, much unlike Ashley Lelie.  He gives outstanding value at this spot, and someone to groom alongside Jason Hill.   He may not see immediate action this season, but fills a spot very well.

I recently caught ESPN’s reposting of Mel Kiper’s writeup on Peyton Manning prior to the 1998 draft, in comparison to the bust that was Ryan Leaf.  This prompted me to go back to Mel’s scouting report on Alex Smith in 2005.  Mel was right on when it came to Manning, as he had been right on about so many players.  Did Mel overthink Smith’s abilities?  Or, considering how rough a road Smith has had, could Mel have forseen this doom?

Try as I might, I couldn’t find it.  If anyone out there can, could you point me in the right direction?  What I did find was all sorts of other scouting reports on him.  I want to take a look at the two major issues about Smith coming out, and see where they have gone over his three-year career.

Conversion to a Pro System
This was the chief concern about Alex Smith, where at Utah he played the Urban Meyer spread offense, a system built around multiple options, quick reads, and a mobile quarterback.  People wondered how he would do going from shotgun only to taking snaps under center.

What we saw his first season was a player with flawed fundamentals, obviously.  He came into a West Coast offense run by Mike McCarthy, from shotgun 1-back or empty sets to two-back pro sets and I-formations.  Tim Rattay had started the first several games before Smith took over.  He struggled to be productive at all, throwing one touchdown the entire season, and eleven interceptions.

When Norv Turner came on board, we saw the single greatest turnaround in Quarterback efficiency as Smith went from 40.8 to 74.8!  Credit first must be given to Turner for his ability to get more out of Smith.  His history with Troy Aikman was a testament to his coaching skill.  But credit also must be given to Alex Smith.  Coming off a terrible rookie campaign, especially for the #1 overall draft pick, he had the confidence and intelligence to learn Norv Turner’s system, he displayed much-improved fundamentals and physical ability.

When Norv Turner left the team, this had a severe psychological impact on the entire team.  Norv was a super-bowl winning, proven coordinator.  Surely the comparison of Jim Hostler’s resume to Turner’s left much to be desired.  The players also probably felt a little betrayed by the coach that made them into the surprise of 2006.  This was now the third coordinator Smith had played under, and all the momentum that was gained under Turner was lost like air from a balloon when he left.

Having played in college in a non-pro system, being forced to learn new fundamentals from the beginning, being forced to absorb new playbooks and coaching styles with each of his pro seasons, Smith has held up okay for his part.  Three games is hardly enough to see what he could have done in 2007.

Remember kids, when your arm is falling off at the shoulder, it’s kind of hard to do anything well.

Smith a “Two to Three Year Project”
This seemed to be a prevailing sentiment, centered around this conversion to the pro system.  Well, how has that worked out so far?  To avoid rehashing the previous paragraph, I will say that Aaron Rodgers was favored to be Nolan’s pick up until late March, when both players had their “Pro Day” at their respective schools.  Rodgers was thought to be the more immediate contributor.

I wonder whether passing on Rodgers and selecting Smith was the impetus for Mike McCarthy’s departure at the end of the year to take the head coaching position at Green Bay.  You’ve got to think that McCarthy knew Favre’s career would be over soon, and he had a great prospect sitting behind a legend.  Kind of convenient.  But I digress.

Had the 49ers taken Aaron Rodgers instead of Smith, it is likely that Smith would have dropped in his value, and fallen ostensibly to Green Bay, who was interested in a quarterback.  How would Aaron Rodgers have fared playing behind Tim Rattay, throwing the ball to a bunch of scrubs and Arnaz Battle in his rookie season?  Better?  Who can say?  How would Alex Smith have developed sitting behind a living legend?  It is not a stretch to think that he would have been much better prepared at this point in his career.

This “two to three year project” has been derailed with each of the young Smith’s three seasons.  Mike Nolan was a rookie Head Coach, with a lot of things entrusted to him.  It’s hard to think that McCarthy and Turner were going to stake their reputations on working under him.  Perhaps had the Yorks hired a former head coach, stability would have been better.

Smith’s career so far is full of false starts.  Three steps forward, two steps back.  Learn a system, struggle.  Learn a new system, get demonstrably better.  Get a third system, start off slow, get traumatically injured.  How could anyone expect any draft prospect to handle this well?  How could anyone have been surprised by the flap of frustrations boiling over between Smith and Nolan toward the end of 2007?

Bottom Line
I believe that Smith is more resilient than people are giving him credit for.  I think that he is intelligent enough to go from Mike McCarthy’s system to a completely different one under Norv Turner and become a much better quarterback–but to jump up thirty points in quarterback rating?  It’s unheard of!

Alex Smith did it, though.

Now one of the brightest offensive minds has come to town.  Now the great veteran Isaac Bruce, who is still a 75-catch guy, and an upward-rising young talent in Bryant Johnson have come in as erstwhile starters.  Our Wide Reciever corps is suddenly twice as good as it was last season, and Mike Martz is the man who works miracles.  A lot of people think Smith can’t ressurect his career.  That he’s not smart enough to absorb Mike Martz’ system.  That he’s lost the confidence of all his teammates.  That he’s lost all confidence in himself.

Alex Smith can do it, though.  And I think Mike Martz knows it.  And before Martz is done with him, Alex Smith will know it, too.

I’m not the kind of Football nerd who analyzes players out of college, compares my team’s needs to other team’s needs and comes up with a mock draft. I don’t have that kind of time, nor do I care all that much. This post is merely me telling you what positions I’d like to see addressed in this year’s draft.

Offensive Line
Last year the 49ers drafted Joe Staley at #29. He is arguably the best left tackle to come out of the ‘07 pool. He may have played on the right side, but it’s clear he’s more comfortable and confident on the left side. Tony Ugoh was good, but he still struggled at times with quicker ends.

I don’t believe guard is one of their more pressing positions, and Jonas Jennings presents his own problems. If push comes to shove, Tony Wragge can play either of those spots. But really, I’d like to see the 49ers take a Center with that #29 pick, and get a Guard or Tackle later. We don’t know the full extent of how much Eric Heitmann’s leg injury had to do with the sieve that was the middle of the line last season. It’s entirely possible that it was Heitmann who made Smiley look like the goat.

Wide Receiver
I would initially say that they don’t need a receiver because of the depth they have with Bruce, Johnson, Battle, Lelie, Hill, Brewer, Zeigler, and Jerard Rabb. By my count that’s eight guys. However, with injuries being a possibility, plus the idea that three of those guys are questionable at best, and the talented guys that are available in this draft–I don’t see how they could pass up the chance if there is a guy they like enough.

Lelie may even be so limited in his attention to detail that he could be a non-factor. I don’t think you need more than two routes for Lelie: Fly and Deep out. Apparently Coach Sullivan thought differently, and perhaps Martz does as well. There are a lot of reads for offensive players, and Lelie may not be capable in this system. So I’d say that the taking of a receiver is a definite likelihood.

Linebacker
The 49ers have quite a few linebackers on the roster. That being said, there are only three that have really shown the speed and instincts to get through the line consistently: Patrick Willis, Parys Haralson, and the freakishly quick Manny Lawson. Considering the fact that the linebackers are critical to the pass rush in a 3-4 defense, the 49ers probably want to address that this offseason.

One scenario I could see happening (read: dream about) is a trade of a couple of the less-capable players (namely Tully Banta-Cain and Zak Keasey) and that second-round pick to the Cincinnati Bengals (who desperately need Linebackers) for that sexy #9 pick. However it is quite unlikely the Bengals would unload that pick.

Those are the three areas I really think need addressing, and the three positions where there are some solid players. There aren’t really any standouts this year. The postions with good first-round talent are Offensive Tackle, Defensive Tackle, Running Back and, to an extent, Quarterback.

Defensive Line
I don’t believe that Defensive Line is a position where the 49ers are hurting. Melvin Oliver, Ray McDonald and Ronald Fields are very capable. In fact, if not for Melvin Oliver’s injury in 2006, we might not have seen Marques Douglas in a 49er uniform. With Oliver coming back healthy, I see him filling that Bryant Young spot in some packages.

Now, while I don’t see it as a pressing need, let’s say the 49ers actually managed to trade up to that #9 or another first round spot. They would have a real shot at yet another Florida standout, the very quick Derrick Harvey. However, they really don’t need a fast Defensive End in this scheme. The kind of player they’d benefit most from here is Kentwan Balmer. Defensive line is probably not a priority going in for Scot McCloughan, but if a big beefy tackle is there, I could easily see them springing for him. In that scenario, it makes putting Sopoaga in Young’s spot a much more permanent move.

I think the 49ers are solid in most other positions. I think Running Back is something they will look at in later rounds, because a team can typically get some good running backs that will work hard. Running backs are only as good as the linemen blocking for them. Just ask Mike Shanahan. There could really be some sleepers there.

Who Do They Take?
This is something I’m not really able to guess at. I merely look at the mock drafts out there and try to imagine myself in Scot McCloughan’s position.

One scenario I really like is if they can get Gosder Cherilus out of BC or better yet, Branden Albert out of Virginia, then in the 2nd round, it’s entirely possible Mario Manningham would be available to them. I cannot see a scenario where McCloughan and everyone else sees a good lineman on the board and passes them up for anyone.

My money would be on an offensive lineman unless most of the best ones are gone, and a good DT remains, as outlined above. I don’t see the 49ers going with a Wide Receiver in the first round, because they are only decent prospects at best. Also, Mike Martz has nearly as good a reputation with recievers as he does with quarterbacks, so he’s got plenty of talent on the roster already, and can make a late pick into a great contributor. Besides, Wide Receivers typically don’t break out until their third season.

So in order of round and position, I would go with the following:

1st - Offensive Line
2nd - Wide Receiver
3rd - Linebacker
4th - Defensive Line
6th - Offensive Line
7th - Wide Receiver

It’s been a long time since I’ve posted an entry here, and likely many of you expected the third in the Going Forward installment by sometime in January.

I wanted to wait until the 49ers Offensive personnel got closer to sorting itself out before I decided my opinion.  I waited until Mike Martz was hired.  I waited through Free Agency.  I waited until the Offseason Conditioning Program began to see who would show up for work.  Now I have an idea as to how things are going to shake out.

Clearly, Mike Martz is going to be the difference maker this season.  The leaps and bounds of progress that Norv Turner made with Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Arnaz Battle, and even the offensive line, was cut short under Jim Hostler.  He was just a very bad coach, make no bones about it.  However, Mike Martz is much more of a catalyst for change than even Norv Turner is.  Norv can take a bad situation and make it better.  Mike Martz can take garbage and make it sing opera.

The simple fact is that everything Mike Martz touches turns to gold.  Trent Green, Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, and even John Kitna are all testaments to that fact.  Even Marshall Faulk, the guy people say Martz forgot how to use, was twice a league MVP because of him.  Martz has been to two Super Bowls and achieved victory in one of them.  Losing a close one to Tom Brady is no sob story.

The Marshall Faulk tale brings up the conundrum that all critics like to preach, that Martz does not know how to run the football.  Look at the facts:  Mike Martz has been the Offensive playcaller for how many teams?  Two.  He made a name for himself in St. Louis with speedy guys like Torry Holt and Az-Zahir Hakim, but he also had Isaac Bruce (now a Niner) and Ricky Proehl as his possession receivers.  Everyone says Martz’ system needs small, fast recievers to work.  In Detroit, he had big ol’ bookend receivers.

When Martz came in, Faulk achieved the Roger Craig-like 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving.  Faulk was already in his sixth year in the league, and it wasn’t until year nine that his numbers began to drop off.  Martz could see his durability sloping off, so it’s no small wonder that Faulk appeared to be used less and less.  People say Martz doesn’t know how to run the ball, and sometimes his stubbornness comes out in public, especially when he says he should have thrown the ball more against the Patriots. 

The reason teams want to run the ball is twofold: first, to control the clock and keep the ball out of the other teams’ hands.  The second reason is to wear down opposing defenses by grinding it out.  Marshall Faulk’s own words on the subject make the most sense.  He admitted that Frank Gore is a much better inside runner than he ever was.  Faulk was better suited to the cutback trap plays that moved the back to the outside edges.  This does not serve to wear down defenses, as the defensive linemen give pursuit for as much as three seconds before the play moves beyond them.  There is no chance to wear them down.

Conversely with a tank like Frank Gore, which Martz never had, and our beefy offensive linemen, which Martz never had, we can push the ball inside.  The Defensive Linemen will more often be forced to use their upper body for positioning and tackling, and linebackers will be filling gaps inside, getting pounded by linemen and Gore himself.  This is the key to a second half running game.

Martz is not a man who is a slave to his own system.  He used the weapons he had in St. Louis, and he used the weapons he had in Detroit.  He never came in and forced the team to pick the players he wanted to “fit his system.”  Mike Martz is a master of football, period.  He knows how to use players to fit their skill sets.  He never had a bruising back.   He never had a mobile quarterback.  He never had a freakishly talented, though still a little raw, mold-breaking tight end.  His offensive line in St. Louis was good, while the one in Detroit was not.  He had garbage running backs while we have an All-Pro. 

By the way, Martz is the guy that drafted Stephen Jackson.  Okay, moving on.

Speaking of mobile quarterbacks, this leads me to another gripe the critics will espouse.  They tell me to look at the sack nubmers, that Martz “gets quarterbacks killed.”  However, we need to look at sack numbers for his quarterbacks without his “system.”  Kurt Warner was a notorious sack magnet and fumbler in New York, and plays only slightly better in Arizona since they actually have receivers who can catch the ball.  Marc Bulger got utterly destroyed last year, and not just because Orlando Pace was out.  Trent Green has been forced to retire because of all the blows to the head, and John Kitna has zero escapability.

Essentially this means that Alex Smith, who has shown us his escapability in games all through 2006, and the three games in which he was not injured in 2007, gives Martz a tool he has never had: the threat of the quarterback to run.  Martz can now actually use a rollout pass play, whereas no defense would ever be fooled by a Kurt Warner bootleg.  Martz can now actually use a rolling pocket screen play.  Big whoop you say, but for a guy like Martz this is like a new chemistry set at Christmas, and his dad just told him to make something. 

Mike Martz is the most important factor to the 49ers’ success this season.  After that, Bryant Johnson is a legitimate threat to be the Primary receiver if he displays a strong work ethic .  Arnaz Battle is still good enough to be a consistent player, he just had a subpar performance last season.  Isaac Bruce provides leadership and a great possession reciever when on the field.  What he provides to his fellow players is a model of how to work with Coach Martz, especially to a group that was woeful last season.

In other news of woeful groups, J.T. O’Sullivan is not a guy that is brought in to compete as the starter, let’s just get that out in the open.  Martz may say so, but he doesn’t want to piss off O’Sullivan’s agent.  Mike Nolan is under no such constraints, and made that clear on NFL Network.  What O’Sullivan provides is another model of how to work with Mike Martz.  If Smith or Hill become uncomfortable, all they need to do is look at the younger O’Sullivan and say, “if he can do it, we can do it.”

Let’s be honest.  Shaun Hill has been in the leage going on seven years.  The 49ers brought him in almost as an afterthought.  You can go back to the post “Much Ado About Shaun Hill” to find out why his end of the year performance last season was unimpressive.  The simple fact is, if you’re an afterthought in your sixth season in the NFL, you are not starter or potential starter material.  Alex Smith is about to begin only his third season of real playing time.  He only has 30 starts under his belt under three different coordinators.  His career is far from decided.

Mike Martz is indeed the best thing Mike Nolan could have given Smith.  Oh yeah, and some receivers to boot.  We’ve seen what Smith could do with Antonio Bryant.  Now put Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson into the mix, and a healthy Vernon Davis who had a fine season for a tight end last year.  Things are looking way up for Alex Smith.  Martz and Smith are going to do outstanding things, in my opinion.

Here’s the bottom line:  Whether Smith, Hill, or O’Sullivan, the choice of starter will be the right choice, and they will put up great numbers.  No matter how you slice it, with Mike Martz, this team will be in the playoffs.  Mark it.

The Good
Andy Lee was flat amazing.  I’ve never seen so many games where the announcers, as a routine, were amazed at the booming kicks Lee made.  I’ve seen the occasional great punt, but Andy Lee flat destroyed the ball every single time he kicked it, averaging 47.5 yards per kick, and a net average of 41.  But you always knew the guys who were accurate, and who the guys were with strong legs, but Andy Lee does both.  His short punts were amazingly accurate, landing 42 inside the 20, and 16 inside the ten.

It was Lee’s ability, matched with a very well-coached coverage team, that enabled the 49ers to gain 40 yards with every possession change.  Going into 2008, the 49ers have a unit that is certifiably of a championship level.  Guys like Keith Lewis and Jeff Ulbrich, who in the past had gotten starting playing time on the defense, became special teams warriors and didn’t worry about playing time. 

Credit has to be given to Special Teams Coordinator Al Everest, because coaching is a far more critical element in Special Teams than any other unit.  On other units, where talent and ability can make up for many errors, the very slightest miscue on Special Teams can result in a touchdown for the other team.  Everest has been able to get great performance out of the coverage teams, and keep former starters motivated on a relatively forgotten and inglorious aspect of the game.
The Bad
The Special Teams was almost a microcosm of the entire team.  The defensive aspect was strong, while the offensive aspect was lacking.  Maurice Hicks performed admirably, usually gaining a good chunk on kick returns.  Of his 63 returns, 43 of them went for more than 20 yards, so he did his job.  Unfortunately, only 4 went for more than 40, and he did not show an ability to make people miss and become a threat to score.  More importantly is the field position battle.

Michael Lewis, the Beer Man, was signed to give a boost to the punt return game, but only fielded five kicks all season, and one went for more than 20 yards.  He came to play under coach Al Everest, for whom he played in New Orleans, and fans are hoping to see him make more exciting plays next season.

Going Forward
Fans expect the Defense to be better next season with players healthy after injury, and young players having gained experience, and perhaps an acquisition or two.  Fans have a nearly blind hope that the offense will be better, though I say we should expect it to.  Mike Martz has never failed to make an immediate improvement.  Fans are confident that the Special Teams will continue to play at a high level next season.

Any substantial improvement by the offense will make a world of difference for this team, and the strength of the Special Teams is a quiet, but important factor.  If the improvements occur, and the 49ers can continue to win the field position battle, they will be in great position to make a run at postseason play.

Next time, going forward with the Offense.